How bullish are health care investors about the future success of Incyte’s (INCY) IDO inhibitor epacadostat? Depending on who you ask, the cancer immunotherapy accounts for $10 billion to $12 billion of Incyte’s current $27 billion market value. That’s a huge bet on a single drug not yet approved.

If epacadostat were a stand-alone company, it would be worth the same as Kite Pharma (KITE), which is being acquired by Gilead Sciences (GILD) (GILD) for just under $12 billion. Investors value the drug more than Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), Seattle Genetics (SGEN) (SGEN), and Exelixis (EXEL) (EXEL), all of which have approved, successfully marketed products.

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