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By acquiring Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) for $9 billion, Celgene (CELG) is making a bullish bet on genetically engineered cells known as CAR-Ts becoming a cornerstone of cancer treatment. The same strategic reasoning compelled Gilead Sciences (GILD) to purchase Kite Pharma for $11 billion last year.

There are no guarantees these bets will pay off. Currently, two CAR-T therapies, including Kite’s Yescarta, are approved to treat a relatively small set of blood cancer patients who have run out of other medical options. The early commercial launches of these CAR-Ts have been slowed by their high cost and the complexities of manufacturing and reimbursement.

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The risks are even greater for Celgene because Juno’s lead CAR-T treatment is not yet approved and won’t likely reach the market until 2019. And even then, it will need to compete directly against Gilead/Kite and Novartis (NVS), the other established CAR-T player.

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