A couple of points to make, riffing off the tweet below, on the subject of sell-side analysts remaining bullish on Alzheimer’s disease drugs like Biogen’s (BIIB) aducanumab even when the historical failure rate is pretty much 100 percent.
It is amazing to see the probabilities that some analysts put on Aducanumab. Wells put in print that they stay at 60-65% following FDA draft guidelines. I have no idea, but analysts can’t help bullishness in AD $BIIB
— Ty (@HCanalyst) February 16, 2018
Sell-side analysts are smart people who work in a dumb system called Wall Street that basically rewards them for being optimistic, even when the facts — or for biotech analysts, the clinical data — suggest otherwise.
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“If the drug fails, the stock could fall to $250, which is roughly the price at which many analysts set “zero pipeline value” for the company.”
— why would shares in a company with nothing of value in the pipeline be priced at $250/share???