Caution: Benefits from earlier trials may be (a lot) smaller than they later appear

They call it the “Proteus effect.”

Researchers tracking clinical trials have long been aware that the first studies to be published sometimes show benefits that aren’t borne out in later trials. Like Proteus, the Greek god of the sea who could change his shape, evidence can shift over time to show more modest improvements.

A new study of clinical trials testing treatments for several chronic conditions has found that more than 1 in 3 of the earliest-to-publication trials reported benefits much greater than later research showed.

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