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Two papers published Friday in the journal the Lancet offer some of the first rigorous analyses of patients who contracted a novel coronavirus that has broken out in China and spread to other countries. Among their discoveries: The virus does not only affect people with other, underlying health conditions, and people who are not showing symptoms can still be carrying the virus.

In one study, researchers analyzed data from the first 41 patients who were admitted to hospitals with confirmed cases of the infection in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have originated last month. Two-thirds had been to a large seafood market that also sold wild animals for meat and is thought to be where the virus jumped from an animal source to people. The median age of the patients was 49.

The patients displayed a wide range of symptoms, many of which were similar to those caused by SARS, another coronavirus, which caused a global outbreak in 2002-2003 that started in China. All of them had pneumonia, and most had fever and cough. Some people had fatigue; rarer symptoms included headache and diarrhea. The researchers noted that patients with SARS more frequently had runny noses, sore throats, and diarrhea than those with the novel coronavirus, which is provisionally being called 2019-nCoV.


One key finding: It’s not only people with other health conditions that are getting sick, the researchers reported. Some of the fatal cases caused by the virus have been among people with underlying diseases like diabetes, liver disease, and hypertension, but the majority of the first 41 patients infected with the disease in Wuhan were healthy. The researchers noted that SARS infections similarly did not only affect people with other conditions.

About a third of the 41 patients needed intensive care, and six of them died. Some of the patients with more serious illnesses suffered from a dangerous immune system overreaction called a cytokine storm, but the researchers said they still did not have a good understanding of how the virus affects the immune system.


As of Friday, there were more than 830 cases of the coronavirus infection in China, with 25 deaths, and a handful of cases in places — including Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and the United States — that were in people who traveled to those countries from China.

The second paper focused on one family who came down with pneumonia in Shenzhen. Five family members had recently traveled to Wuhan and had the virus, as did one relative who had not traveled to Wuhan.

So far, authorities have only confirmed human-to-human transmission of the virus among families and in health care clinics — settings where people are likely to be in close contact with each other, according to the World Health Organization. This appears to be the case with the family that was studied. Still, health officials do not know exactly how efficiently the virus can pass among people.

One child with the virus did not show any symptoms. Health authorities have said that people with the virus have shown a range of symptoms, from very mild to very severe. But an asymptomatic infection raises the question of whether people have to be showing signs of the disease to pass it to people, a question that experts are rushing to answer.

“Because asymptomatic infection appears possible, controlling the epidemic will also rely on isolating patients, tracing and quarantining contacts as early as possible, educating the public on both food and personal hygiene, and ensuring health care workers comply with infection control,” Dr. Kwok-Yung Yuen from the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, who led the research, said in a statement.

In a commentary piece also published Friday by the Lancet, Dr. David Heymann, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, wrote that “the picture these two manuscripts paint is of a disease with a 3-6 day incubation period and insidious onset.”

The researchers who wrote the two papers and other experts cautioned that these were small studies with limited numbers of patients in a rapidly evolving outbreak. But they noted that sharing information like this as quickly and rigorously as possible can help shape the response.

“The information in these articles are pieces of the jigsaw puzzle that are being fit together by WHO as it continues to collect official reports and informal information from its virtual groups of national clinicians, epidemiologists, and virologists working at outbreak sites and brought together from around the world,” Heymann wrote. “When pieced together, these emerging data will permit regular refinement of the risk assessment, and real-time guidance to countries for patient management and outbreak control, including the best case definition for use in surveillance around outbreak sites and elsewhere.”

  • There are a major economic crisis and depression possibly approaching and all the money involved either from direct losses (tourism all over the world/ financial centers, bankruptcy, canceling of meetings) or from studying the disease and trying contention and isolation is huge. I am surprised no one has proposed cheap and accessible AUTO DIAGNOSTIC KITS. Under some circumstances, they might even be free.

    This is a step that could circumvent many of the problems now arising.

  • Can we have some more stories about how people have recovered from Coronavirus unscathed? And what their experiences were like? Everything is all doom and gloom, and whereas I understand the severity of the situation, and I have the utmost sympathy for these individuals and there families, it would be really nice to have some objective perspective here. The scaremongering in the media does no one any service at all.

  • The deaths to six people from a sample of 41 suggest a much higher death toll than we are being told?

    It would be interesting to see the current status of those that survived until the article was published as their are rumours of reinfection.

    Also one in three did not go to the market, so it seems the market is not definitely the true cause?

    It would be interesting to see what risk factors other than the market could be involved?

    • I think it’s important to remember the 6 deaths are from those who were already critically ill and were placed in intensive care, from what I can gather. Still, this is no solace to their families, but the statistics are flawed and misrepresented.

  • May I throw a question out there? Hoping for a qualified answer.
    I’ve recently returned to the US from China and just squeaked through before the mandatory isolation of passengers traveling from China. Can I carry the virus and pass it along without EVER presenting symptoms?

    • YES YOU CAN, Symptoms do not need to be present to be a carrier. I work with physicians on a daily basis and what they tell us on a daily basis is everyone is a possible carrier if they have come in contact with the virus or someone who has the virus or is a carrier of the virus and or is either symptomatic or non-symptomatic. Cases are much worse than we are being told and people can carry and pass for 2-3 weeks prior to any symptoms even being present. This is going to be a bad round people a bad round for many of us. Wash your hands often, 10-15 20 times a day with SOAP ! for 20 30 seconds each time, also use sanitize AFTER you wash with soap and water. Also was your nasal area as well often. SOAP AND WATER. Hope this helps. I was in CVS Pharmacy yesterday in Southern California Orange County getting a Flu Shot yesterday and 20 Plus people trying to get on, this shot is good to have but will NOT protect against this Virus, only against ones from 2 yrs prior.. Will help against the flu and will help to guard against smaller infectious stuff but not this virus… Just be smart people wash off the carts at the grocery store, with the wipes keep hands away from eyes and mouth…
      Be Smart Stay away from Public Venues : “For Now”

    • @Julie. Your comment is most adamant. Are you a health care professional close to the scientific studies on the virus? Can you please confirm why you state “cases are much worse than we are being told”? It would be good to see the facts that support your statements.

    • Someone suggested that the world should unite in this Coronavirus. lol lol,
      it is laughable when you have countries like IRAN who would rather see mankind destroyed than to work with USA. People should not commit murder, rape, but they do and will continue to do so. There is your reply.

  • So now… some days later, this being written 1/29/2020, have we determined that the virus is asymptomatic? I think this point is KEY and CORE to both the expected depth and breadth of theb outbreak, and would also point to the adequacy or failings of many of the world’s airports who do “screening” to check if people have the virus. Screening such as checking for symptoms….would be wholly ineffective and the rate of spreading the disease would be many orders of magnitude greater. It would also suggest mandatory quarantining of incoming people into another country. My fear is that this core point is not being captured seriously enough.

  • The simple advice to go to bed if you’re sick has died out thanks to antibiotics, profit to be made by products which give symptom relief but not treatment, and relentless pressure to keep going to work.

    Our body’s defences against disease require massive amounts of energy. In the case of a new virus ‘sickness behaviour’ (going to bed and staying there) is the ONLY weapon we’ve got, and should be prescribed, not discouraged.

  • Is the virus curable now? And how is this transmited from one to another? Is it similar to Tb?

    • Viruses aren’t curable. Only the symptoms can be treated until your immune system fights it off. This is how those handful have been “cured”. They were put on ECMO (Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation). Which is essentially life support, where the machine was keeping the lungs breathing.

    • Actually anti-virals have come a long way, so many viruses are now very much curable. A good example is hepatitis C, which used to be totally incurable and now has cure rates approaching 100%. The problem with a new virus is that development of an effective cure takes many years. ( As an aside some viruses like influenza and hiv are still eluding any attempts at a cure, so far, even if we have medicines that can suppress the worst of their effects)

    • I think the value in the development of the cure also has to weighed against the risk that illness poses. So for “mainstream” flu, the investment may not be worthwhile. Corona on the other hand, which it’s higher mortality rate, may prove to be otherwise.

  • Without surveys of exposed asymptomatics, nothing can be said about transmissibility or for that matter about mortality rates. Also, period of transmission. Can it occur during the insidious onset period? How long is it shed after the symptoms subside? R rate? Sounds like SARS part II.

    • The Lancet links to a .pdf file instead of a web-hosted article. You’ll have to download it to read it.

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