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Among the pharmaceutical companies closest to developing a Covid-19 vaccine, none has more riding on the outcome than Moderna, a decade-old firm with no approved products and a vast valuation to live up to.

Every incremental headline on Moderna’s vaccine, now in Phase 3, has shifted billions of dollars of the company’s market value, and Wall Street analysts have been one-upping one another for months trying to game out just how lucrative the product might be.

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