Among the pharmaceutical companies closest to developing a Covid-19 vaccine, none has more riding on the outcome than Moderna, a decade-old firm with no approved products and a vast valuation to live up to.

Every incremental headline on Moderna’s vaccine, now in Phase 3, has shifted billions of dollars of the company’s market value, and Wall Street analysts have been one-upping one another for months trying to game out just how lucrative the product might be.

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  • Moderna has received >$900m in BARDA money to develop the vaccine, including the cost of phase 3 trials. Why does it get to set the price?

  • % chance 1st scenario hits: <5%
    2nd scenario: less than 20%
    3rd scenario:35%
    4the scenario:45%
    5th scenario: 10%

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