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When there’s a public health crisis or disaster like the coronavirus pandemic, experts know that the official death tally is going to be an undercount by some extent. Some people who die might never have been tested for the disease, for example, and if people die at home without receiving medical care, they might not make it into the confirmed data.

To address that, researchers often look to what are called excess deaths — the number of deaths overall during a particular period of time compared to how many people die during the stretch in a normal year.

Now, in the most updated count to date, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found that nearly 300,000 more people in the United States died from late January to early October this year compared the average number of people who died in recent years. Just two-thirds of those deaths were counted as Covid-19 fatalities, highlighting how the official U.S. death count — now standing at about 220,000 — is not fully inclusive.

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To be exact, the researchers reported that 299,028 more people died from Jan. 26 to Oct. 3 this year than on average during the same stretch from 2015 to 2019. Excess deaths also occurred at higher rates among Latinx, Asian, American Indian, and Black people than among white people, mirroring the disparities in official U.S. Covid-19 death counts.

Most likely, the excess deaths account for some otherwise untallied Covid-19 deaths — those who may have died without being tested or who died at home and whose deaths were not counted as caused by the coronavirus. But the 300,000 number probably also includes people who died because they were scared to seek out medical care because of the pandemic or had their care interrupted, and because of other causes. One limitation of the study, the researchers noted, was that the U.S. population is growing and getting older, so more deaths might have occurred in 2020 versus recent years without a pandemic, making a direct comparison harder.

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Deaths among white people in 2020 were just 11.9% higher than average years, a much lower increase than deaths among Latinx people (53.6% higher than average), Asian people (36.6% higher), Black people (32.9% higher), and American Indians and Alaska Natives (28.9% higher). “These disproportionate increases among certain racial and ethnic groups are consistent with noted disparities in Covid-19 mortality,” the researchers wrote.

There were also differences among different age groups, with the largest increase occurring among people age 25 to 44, who saw excess deaths that were 26.5% higher than average. People 45 to 64 had 14.4% more deaths, while those 65 to 74 had 24.1% more deaths. Deaths among people 75 to 84 were 21.5% higher and 14.7% higher for people 85 and above. Deaths this year for people under 25, however, were 2% below average.

  • For those who don’t believe the veracity of the death statistics and are always on the lookout for nefarious reasons behind observable phenomena, it’s not very easy to coordinate a conspiracy around the world.

    You would also have to wonder how physicians in different parts of the US could coordinate their activities from region to region, take a break for a few months and then get into synchrony again with one another for another wave.

    Nature can do that. People can’t.

    We will all die at some point, but whether COVID-19 was the primary cause or the death was from a complicating health factor is irrelevant. It robs people of their lives and also robbed people of the opportunity to seek care for other life threatening maladies.

    None of this should ever have been political, but we have a President who only sees things in terms of black and white and who thrives on chaos and sowing division.

    He made this political and he also couldn’t help but mismanage because mismanagement is his signature strategy.

    At this point it’s hard to deny that he has lied about everything and he’s continually tried to blame others for his very, very poor decisions and callous attitude toward your life and my life.

    When he is out of office we will learn some of the evil evil this person has wrought upon us and for what reason.

    As a nation we have never faced anything like Donald Trump. Not even McCarthyism. Not even Nixon. Trump is incapable and cannot be trusted.

  • Do you purposely leave the number of deaths normally occurring every year as to prove your point? Do you take into consideration that 96% of the covid deaths had contributing factors of poor health which is attributed to most minorities due to systemic racism in the medical profession? Covid on its own is only responsible for approximately 6% of the total deaths. Nothing like proving a point by misleading the facts.

  • Thank you…I’ve been saying: “Unless the Dr. places CKVID on the Death Certificate…its not COVID as a stat. Many people have been dying as ASSOCIATED with COVID. This is critical reporting.

  • Re: “…Now, in the most updated count to date, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found that nearly 300,000 more people in the United States died from late January to early October this year compared the average number of people who died in recent years. Just two-thirds of those deaths were counted as Covid-19 fatalities, highlighting how the official U.S. death count – now standing at about 220,000 – is not fully inclusive…
    “Genocide by Depraved Indifference to Human Life” is what I’d select were I Trump’s, (well, earned / deserved), prosecutor…

    • What exactly should Trump have done? Democratic politicians opposed travel restrictions, and Democratic voters refused to socially distance as they ran riot across the country. You people would have had a f***ing aneurysm if Trump had used the military to enforce social distancing on people who thought that toppling statues was more important than a deadly pandemic.

    • The h1n1 epidemic lasted approximately 17 months, 2009-2010. According to CDC estimates, there were approximately 89 million cases, of which 402,000 required hospitalization. Of those 402,000 confirmed cases, there were over 18,000 fatalities. It was a world-wide pandemic, and continues to circulate even today. Like the COVID-19, the h1n1 attacks the upper respiratory system. We don’t remember lockdowns – because there weren’t any, despite the fact that the virus had it’s most debilitating impact on children and young adults, who comprised most of the 18,000 deaths. So where were the media? Where was our President in 2009? The WHO, in a report published November 26, 2013, revised that count. They estimate that the 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was – 10-fold higher than the World Health Organization’s laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Despite the severity of that pandemic, no one remembers any specific initiative on the part of the previous administration pertaining to n1n1: no lockdowns, no panics, no masks, no social distancing, and yet CHILDREN and young adults were most at risk, and accounted for most of the 18,000 fatalities (or 180,000 fatalities, if you accept the WHO’s revised estimates). Your reference to “Genocide by Depraved Indifference to Human Life” is an amusing bit of wordsmithing, and could – perhaps – be applied to President Obama’s first year in office. Emotion, however, often governs the disposition of some, regarding the COVID. That is to be expected of those in particular who favor liberal ideology. In a larger sense, however, given our total population, the number of fatalities from Covid is less than .01. When our nation is able to intellectually apply the SAME criteria in evaluating similar situations – Obama’s h1n1 and Trump’s COVID – and do so OBJECTIVELY rather than EMOTIONALLY, then our country will be moving in a direction toward greater equality. Your sarcastic comment, however, does nothing to further that direction.

    • Brett is correct, though should have been more forceful. What Trump did was close the border to China & Europe hotspots in late Feb & early March, respectively. Biden & Bernie Sanders publicly disagreed and called him the usual “racist & xenophobic”, acting as flag bearers for the usual left wing accusation parade. Thus, exponentially more infections and deaths would have resulted under a Democratic administration. Furthermore, early March CDC death total estimates ran from 200k in best scenario….to 1.7million. Here’s your source, from the left wing NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html.
      And though this article says there’s undercounts, there’s plenty of statements by multiple doctors that they’re pressured to officially declare deaths by Covid in many situations where there’s sufficient doubt it’s true. But as often said about politics, health care too is local. The absolute fault of the majority of New York state deaths, highest in the country, is due to vast stupidity of the Democrat Governor policies in placing Covid patients in nursing homes, who has the audacity to declare none if it is his fault, and that he should receive some sort of an award. There’s the pure example of “Depraved Indifference to Human Life”. Lastly, as everyone quickly forgets to make this political, there’s only one entity to truly blame – China. They created this, they suppressed it, they lied about it, they obscenely still allowed international travel outside of the country, at the same time stopping intra-country travel from Wuhan, odiously tried to blame the US as the cause of it, and have never expressed one modicum of remorse to the World. Indicative of the true Communist and international threat that the left has, and will continue to truly collude with. Go find the two doctors from China who tried to warn the rest of the world back in January when it broke out. The male doctor got infected just after he got a few warnings on social media out, and then his accounts were suspended before he died weeks later; and the female, was never heard from, or seen, again.

      Captain, US Navy, retired

  • “the U.S. population is growing and getting older, so more deaths might have occurred in 2020 versus recent years”
    That’s really a ridiculous explanation. If that would be real, you should have seen it manifest itself year on year, over at least the past five years. Which is not the case. It doesn’t make any rational sense to think that all of a sudden in the last year only that has become a major source of mortality.

    • The assertion that the aging population just decided to have a precipitous increase in deaths that amazingly started the same time the coronavirus hit is pretty spectacular. January 2020… about the same as last year… February 2020… seniors still doing fine… March 2020….BAMMM!!!! time for the seniors to start dying of natural old age in droves.

    • Yeah, that one really leaps out at you, so whoever inserted it was rather low on the numerology scale…I assume it was NOT one of the actual CDC researchers but rather a political appointee.

      BTW, the numbers are pretty close to those in two recent JAMA reports. The researchers in the JAMA studies do NOT mention unusually high naturally occurring increases in all cause mortality solely because of an aging population; they do mention taking into account DECLINES in some causes of death, like motor vehicle crashes.

      So again, since the CDC study mirrors the JAMA studies in all ways save one sore thumb, I have suspicions where that sore thumb (or should I say ham fist) came from.

  • fun fact
    data source: CDC; period: Feb1-Oct10
    -officially listed COVID19 deaths: 205k
    -Excess deaths from all causes: 287k-324k*
    as compared to same period for years 2015-18 (adjusted for demographic increase)
    *364k-400k if you consider 205k coronavirus deaths were indeed recorded Sep29.
    and likely still under counted, as in states like Georgia, they are not only misclassifying the deaths, but just hiding them altogether.

    even funnier fact
    In Florida for instance, there have been so far about 15k extra deaths on top of the 15k official covid-19 death toll. Must have been a really bloody jet ski mayhem this year down there. And even weirder, mostly senior jet skier!

  • There’s no evidence to support that all the 300000 excess deaths are due to coronavirus. There have also been deaths of despair from the impacts of lockdowns, such as suicide, substance abuse as well as medical issues that go untreated. Then there’s the whole issue of dying with versus of coronavirus.
    This is a very poor article that makes baseless assertions.

    • The entire last paragraph is misleading. Growth on a much smaller number (25-44 y/o deaths) is less significant than the much higher volume deaths over 75. And to show all this without a single chart is just lazy.

    • So you comment, claiming stuff like deaths from “despair”, without doing a lick of research yourself but you really wrap up your comment saying this article has “baseless assertions”? That is just beautiful man. Round of applause.

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