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When there’s a public health crisis or disaster like the coronavirus pandemic, experts know that the official death tally is going to be an undercount by some extent. Some people who die might never have been tested for the disease, for example, and if people die at home without receiving medical care, they might not make it into the confirmed data.

To address that, researchers often look to what are called excess deaths — the number of deaths overall during a particular period of time compared to how many people die during the stretch in a normal year.

Now, in the most updated count to date, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found that nearly 300,000 more people in the United States died from late January to early October this year compared the average number of people who died in recent years. Just two-thirds of those deaths were counted as Covid-19 fatalities, highlighting how the official U.S. death count — now standing at about 220,000 — is not fully inclusive.

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To be exact, the researchers reported that 299,028 more people died from Jan. 26 to Oct. 3 this year than on average during the same stretch from 2015 to 2019. Excess deaths also occurred at higher rates among Latinx, Asian, American Indian, and Black people than among white people, mirroring the disparities in official U.S. Covid-19 death counts.

Most likely, the excess deaths account for some otherwise untallied Covid-19 deaths — those who may have died without being tested or who died at home and whose deaths were not counted as caused by the coronavirus. But the 300,000 number probably also includes people who died because they were scared to seek out medical care because of the pandemic or had their care interrupted, and because of other causes. One limitation of the study, the researchers noted, was that the U.S. population is growing and getting older, so more deaths might have occurred in 2020 versus recent years without a pandemic, making a direct comparison harder.

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Deaths among white people in 2020 were just 11.9% higher than average years, a much lower increase than deaths among Latinx people (53.6% higher than average), Asian people (36.6% higher), Black people (32.9% higher), and American Indians and Alaska Natives (28.9% higher). “These disproportionate increases among certain racial and ethnic groups are consistent with noted disparities in Covid-19 mortality,” the researchers wrote.

There were also differences among different age groups, with the largest increase occurring among people age 25 to 44, who saw excess deaths that were 26.5% higher than average. People 45 to 64 had 14.4% more deaths, while those 65 to 74 had 24.1% more deaths. Deaths among people 75 to 84 were 21.5% higher and 14.7% higher for people 85 and above. Deaths this year for people under 25, however, were 2% below average.

  • This does not account for or address any excess deaths caused by the lockdown, such as increase in suicides, and neglect of other medical problems.

  • Wayne: There is still the same number of flu cases, only now they are calling the flu “COVID-19”.

    We have been lied to every step of the way.

  • This “study” is deliberately & blatantly inflating numbers. Per the cdc, death numbers rise every year Not only did this study not factor that in, they aren’t even comparing to 2019, but older numbers (average of 2015-2019). Using this exact method, you could also say there were 140,446 “excess” deaths in2018. There will always be “excess” deaths when you compare to previous years, because more people die each year. This is not a study but an attempt to inflate numbers. See total death numbers below:

    2013- 2,596,993
    2014- 2,626,418
    2015- 2,712,630
    2016- 2,744,248
    2017- 2,813,503
    2018- 2,839,205

    • The thing about reading, is that you have to do it to understand. They’re not saying 300k deaths are from Covid-19, rather “just two-thirds of those deaths were counted as Covid-19 fatalities”, which aligns with the CDC’s number.

      Reading is fun, when you do it right.

  • Is this taking into account the average increase in deaths annually in the US of 444,000 over the past 9 years?

    • No it does not which makes this “study” completely meaningless. On a normal year, more people die in the US than the previous year. (Total death rate per cdc: 2015- 2,712,630, 2016- 2,744,248, 2017- 2,813,503
      2018- 2,839,205). They are comparing 2020 raw numbers with the average of 2015-2019, which is about 3 years ago. Of course deaths went up over what they were 3 years ago. They do this every year!

  • They forgot that Less people may die late this year caused by flu and cold compared to last year. Social distances could reduce their infection rates. Year over year comparison needs to wait to the end of the year.

  • To any doubter over this virus, if the pandemic is so ‘fake’, where are the lawsuits over ‘fake’ medical bills?

    Our beloved medical system will end up bankrupting countless families over this illness. Their illness and longterm effects will certainly not be ‘fake’. Good luck trying to convince them otherwise.

  • So the death rate increase of those 25-44 is higher than the death rate increase of anyone over 45? That seems odd, given that it seemed to affect the elderly the most harshly. Is there a way to get a cause-of-death breakdown?

    • Answer: Baby boomers rule! We remember polio kids with braces, measles, chicken pox. We know how to stay safe; also the
      geezer factor has been moved down and the OBESITY factor has been moved up the chart, just this week.

  • This study suggests that every two people who died from covid, one person died from the lockdowns.

    Another recent study suggests a one to one ratio.

    At least six studies have shown the lockdowns to be 100% ineffective at slowing the spread of covid.

    The WHO recently said that global tens of millions are at risk of food shortages due to the lockdowns.

    The economic consequences of the lockdowns are likely to be comparable to the Great Depression.

    But all of that is a small price to pay to avoid admitting that Trump was right.

    • So you have read some info, but the conclusions appear to have escaped you. Firstly this just says 300k more than expected, not what they are from 100%. Neither all 80k are undocumented covid nor “lockdown attrition”, probably some of each.

      No respected recognized study has come up with your next numbers.

      Countless studies and reading the case numbers have show lockdowns work, but stubborn or uneducated people can sabotage them yes.

      Food shortages due to lockdowns are serious possibility yes.

      Economic consequences are going to be huge, but bigger in countries wo much govt support (US) and less so in the countries who actually did lock down and control it (New Zealand, China).

      Last one, since he talks around everything, it’s hard to say anything he says is right, however he’s been very wrong through every issue here, from injecting bleach, chloroquine, “its going away by April”, numbers are going down, etc, I’m not sure hes said something correct on the subject.

  • There is no conflict. The article is talking about percentage increases versus a baseline, not total mortality rate overall.

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